Cathy P. Frank c: 513.478.1296
Email cfrank@comey.com

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Townhouses and single-family homes are sprouting on old industrial sites in the heart of Southern California cities. In Florida, developers are coveting foreclosed golf courses in urban centers to put up new subdivisions. Builders in Texas are going after available land even near landfills for residential and retail development.

Why are the giants of the building industry, the creators for decades of massive communities of cookie-cutter homes, cul-de-sacs and McMansions in far-flung suburbs, doing an about-face? Why are they suddenly building smaller neighborhoods in and close to cities on land more likely to be near a train station than a pig farm?

A housing industry slowly shaking off the worst economic conditions in decades is rethinking what type of housing to build and where to build it. It’s a response to a new wave of home buyers who have no desire to live in traditional subdivisions far from urban amenities.

The nation’s development patterns may be at a historic juncture as builders begin to reverse 60-year-old trends. They’re shifting from giant communities on wide-open “greenfields” to compact “infill” housing in already-developed urban settings.

The market slowdown has given builders time to assess sweeping demographic changes that are transforming the way Americans want to live.

Young Millennials and older Baby Boomers are rejecting traditional suburban lifestyles in favor of urban living and shorter commutes. Many want to live near city centers so they can walk to work, shops and restaurants or take public transportation. They also prefer smaller homes because they’re single or have no kids and don’t want to spend their free time maintaining their homes.

“It’s the kids (ages 18 to 32), the empty nesters (Baby Boomers with no kids at home),” says Chris Leinberger, president of Smart Growth America’s LOCUS (Latin for “place”), a national coalition of real estate developers and investors who support urban developments that encourage walking over driving. “These two generations combined are more than half of the American population.”

The housing bust of the last five years hit hardest in subdivisions in remote suburbs, drying up financing for such development. At the same time, gas prices soared and so did environmental consciousness, giving consumers pause about living in distant suburbs away from services, jobs and entertainment.

California couple Maurice Turner and his wife, Preet Bassi, used to rent in the center of Anaheim. When they decided to buy, they found their choices limited at first.

“The majority of homes were single-family homes in the suburbs or older homes and multi-story condos in the city,” says Turner, administrative manager in a nearby city.

The 30-something professionals did not want to leave city neighborhoods and settle in a suburban subdivision. And they didn’t want to live in a multi-story condo building.

That was about the time Brookfield Homes, a leading developer of huge suburban subdivisions, began Colony Park — more than 500 single-family homes, townhouses and condominiums in Anaheim’s Historic District on a site that once housed industrial warehouses. Many of the townhomes are across the street from restaurants, entertainment and other urban attractions.

Turner and Bassi now live in a three-story, 1,700-square-foot townhouse where they and their neighbors make “a conscious effort to spend less time in your car commuting and spend more time in your neighborhood with friends, neighbors, family,” Turner says. “The urban environment was a big key to staying.”

Growth patterns shift

Developers are listening because the market has spoken loud and clear.

Latest Census data show that population growth in fringe counties nearly stopped in the 12 months that ended July 1, 2011, and urban counties at the center of metro areas grew faster than the nation as a whole, a USA TODAY analysis found.

Central metro counties accounted for 94% of U.S. growth, compared with 85% just before the recession and housing bust.

A recent Case Western Reserve University study found that Cleveland’s inner city is growing faster than its suburbs for the first time.

In January 2000, the highest price per square foot in the Washington, D.C., metro area was in the leafy suburb of Great Falls, Va., according to Zillow, a real estate research firm. Ten years later, townhouses in the hip and urban Dupont Circle neighborhood of Washington were worth 70% more per square foot than property in Great Falls.

“These are the market signals we’re getting throughout the country,” Leinberger says. “The drivable suburban fringe is where the housing market collapsed — 80% of the collapsed market was there. It’s a classic case of the real estate industry overproducing.”

Most major builders have created “urban” divisions in the past five years to scout for available land in already-developed parts of cities and closer suburbs — even if it means former industrial and commercial sites or land that may require environmental cleanup.

This shift doesn’t mean the end of sprawling suburban subdivisions in onetime cow pastures and corn fields, but it does signal a notable change that could alter the housing landscape for years to come.

“There has been a huge shift, particularly in the last 10 years,” says Marie York, president of real estate consulting York Solutions in Palm Beach County, Fla., and a board member of the American Planning Association. “There’s an emphasis on walkability, an emphasis on health, an emphasis on commuting by bicycle … a shift away from blatant consumerism and the McMansion model.”

The shift is not temporary, says Gregory Vilkin, managing principal and president of MacFarlane Partners, a San Francisco-based real estate investment company building 170 units on the site of former parking lots and auto repair shops in South Lake Union, a new urban project in Seattle.

Vilkin headed one of the nation’s largest urban redevelopments while at the helm of Forest City Enterprises‘ residential real estate division: Stapleton, a cluster of neighborhoods built on 7.5 square miles on the site of the old Stapleton International Airport in Denver. Developers built 11 units per acre compared with four per acre in traditional suburban subdivisions.

“I reject the premise that (the shift) is just because of the recession,” Vilkin says. “It’s no longer the American dream to own a plot of land with a house on it and two cars in the driveway.”

Adds Leinberger: “This is a structural change, not a cyclical downturn.”

Moving toward the center

Whether it’s temporary or a seminal moment in the nation’s development history, the housing bust and recession have prompted developers to set their sights inward. When property values drop, so does investment. And because values dropped the most on the outer edges of metro areas, developers are paying attention to sites they never considered before.

“It makes you not look at these large properties on the edge of the Earth anymore,” says Denise Gammon, president of the communities division of Florida-based Kitson & Partners. “There’s a dramatic shift going on.”

Gammon also worked on Stapleton, and Kitson hired her to develop their infill business. In Tampa, the company is building Bay Pines, which will have multi-family housing, hotel, grocery store and shops on 60 acres that once was the site of a mobile home park.

“It’s an area of Tampa that hasn’t seen new housing in 25 years,” she says. “The conventional model is obsolete. People are looking for something different.”

In California, KB Home built Primera Terra at Playa Vista, near Marina Del Rey, on the site of an old Hughes Aircraft site. The condos highlight energy efficiency, proximity to shops, parks and schools, and prices under $600,000 (no garages).

“It has drawn an incredible number of people,” says Steve Ruffner, president of KB Home Southern California. “People are very interested in technology in a home that’s not only good for the environment but saves them ownership costs —Energy Star, solar.”

Executives of Dallas-based Huffines Communities sensed a revolution was afoot after attending a builders’ show in Orlando in 2005 when they realized that investors were the dominant buyers of suburban housing — not consumers.

The company had nine so-called “master-planned communities” in the works that would go up on undeveloped land in outer suburbia.

“We sold six and kept three,” says Robert Kembel, Huffines president. The company redeployed its capital to redeveloping sites in cities. “If people prefer to live closer to the jobs center, the pricing you can command is higher and there’s less competition,” Kembel says.

Huffines is developing Viridian, 5,000 units on a 2,300-acre site in a flood plain near a landfill in Arlington, Texas. The project required lengthy and costly cleanup and wetlands restoration measures.

“Developers who have the patience to go to the city or county and negotiate public-private partnerships to help mitigate huge costs, those are the guys who win,” Kembel says.

No time for big yards

Suburbia is changing, too.

Established suburbs such as Virginia’s Fairfax County, outside Washington, D.C., are building town centers that combine residential and retail on greenfields. Rapid transit lines are expanding through Tysons Corner, site of two shopping malls and headquarters of major corporations. Plans are for dense, high-rise development.

Even traditional communities built on greenfields are transforming. In Southern California’s Inland Empire, an area where housing prices are lower and appeal to first-time buyers, Brookfield is building Edenglen in Ontario. The homes are built on smaller lots — 4,500 square feet instead of the more conventional 7,200 square feet — and priced from $200,000 to $300,000.

“We’ve seen a lot of single females, single males, couples without kids,” says Carina Hathaway, vice president of marketing. “They don’t really have time to maintain huge yards.”

But Kembel predicts infill development is the wave of the future. Military bases that have shuttered offer huge opportunities, and so do old subdivisions built when sprawling suburbia was born in the 1950s and 1960s, he says.

“For the first time in history, Americans have stopped pushing development to the edge,” says Robert Lang, professor of urban affairs at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas and author of Megapolitan America. “The shift is from the old crabgrass frontier to the new Main Street.”

Comey & Shepherd Realtors | Cincinnati Real Estate Blog | Cincinnati Real Estate | Comey Blog

Facts and Trends TM

Published May 2012*

Location: HAMILTON COUNTY

Price Range: $0 – No Limit

Property Types: Single Family, Condo – All Property Statuses

Bedrooms: 0 – No Limit

Full Baths: 0 – No Limit

Half Baths: 0 – No Limit

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Feb. 2011 – Apr. 2012)

Avg Days On Market & SP/Orig LP % (Feb. 2011 – Apr. 2012)

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Feb. 2011 – Apr. 2012)

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Feb. 2011 – Apr. 2012)

www.mycityliving.com

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If you are considering purchasing a short sale, or if you are considering trying to qualify to short sell your home or condo please contact one of our Comey & Shepherd, City Office agents today! Link To Agent Page

From: KCMblog.com

On virtually any given evening, you can walk around downtown Cincinnati and run into people. In fact, you might find a large crowd either on Fountain Square, at The Banks or up in Over-the-Rhine.

Anyone who knows Cincinnati knows this is a relatively new situation for this once ghost town. It used to be that when the work day ended, downtown Cincinnati’s sidewalks rolled up for the night. But now, the city comes alive.

Kevin Michell grew up in Maine. He now lives in downtown Cincinnati and works in Over-the-Rhine. A twenty-something, Michell says the nightlife in the city is growing by leaps and bounds. And, he adds, each time a new restaurant or bar opens, there’s a new level of excitement in the air.

“Fountain Square is just effervescent, bubbling, full of energy. I think the energy is starting to radiate outward,” Michell said.

The renovation by 3CDC seemed to have started the ball rolling for Cincinnati. Virtually every night there is programming on Fountain Square that entices people to the city, like Salsa on the Square, ice skating and free movie nights in the summer.

Now that The Banks is inhabited with residents, bars and restaurants, a community seems to be coming alive in that area too.

Michael Lee grew up on the west side of Cincinnati at a time when living downtown wasn’t “cool.”

According to Lee, it is now.

“When you live downtown and you start getting phone calls of people wanting to come down and visit downtown Cincinnati, which never used to be the case,” Lee said.

Lee is one of the lucky ones who is renting an apartment at Current at The Banks. There is a waiting list to live there. Weekends are now filled with friends and family looking for a place to sleep after having a night out on the town. Lee says the only times he used to have visitors was when the Reds or Bengals were in town. Now, he says, there is something happening every night.

“We’ve Got Johnny Rockets right across from us, Holy Grail right below us, Moerlein House across the way,” Lee said as he leaned out of his apartment window to gaze at the new developments.

Lee says he finds it hard to imagine what it will be like when the Horseshoe Casino opens in the near future.

“There is definitely a vibe here,” Lee said.

And there are big events coming to Cincinnati. The biggest is the World Choir Games, which kicks off in Cincinnati July 4th and is expected to bring tens of thousands of people to Cincinnati from all over the world.

Lonely Planet Travel recently listed Cincinnati as a top destination of 2012. The list has Cincinnati third, comparable to the Virgin Islands at number one.

“If you can’t get excited or feel proud of this, then I’m not sure you can get excited about anything,” said the CEO of 3CDC, Steve Leeper.

3CDC renovated Fountain Square and then began tackling Over-the-Rhine, which had long been a source of crime in Cincinnati, not pride.

He points out the colorfully painted Italianate buildings in the neighborhood.

“Eight years ago, these were vacant buildings,” said Leeper.

Most of them now house a restaurant or bar on the first floor and condos or homes on the second and third levels. In fact, of 3CDC’s first four phases of home and condominium development in Over-the-Rhine, only 12 units remain on the market. Restaurants in this area regularly have multiple-hour waits for dinner on a Saturday night. Even weeknights can bring waits at some restaurants.

There are also new boutiques opening, which is drawing a fashion-forward crowd. Stores like Sloane, which owner Duru Armagn opened in November of 2011. Armagn didn’t grow up in Cincinnati, but she fell in love with the neighborhood and knew she had to be part of its revitalization.

“I’ve just never seen so many people excited about a city,” she said. “I think we’re catching up to everyone else.”

In the weeks to come, the redeveloped Washington Park will open. It will boast an area for concerts and a dog park. Underground parking at the park is already open and being used for concerts at the adjacent Music Hall.

More restaurants are opening at The Banks in the coming weeks. The Wine Guy, Ruth Chris’ Steakhouse, Crave and more.

But it begs the question, is all of the development sustainable? Leeper emphatically says “yes.”

“This is something you can not stop. You gotta keep investing. You gotta keep the momentum. You can’t sleep. We certainly are not going to do that,” Leeper said.

Need some hard proof that Cincinnati is rising? Here are a few bullet points that may make you a true believer:

Growing And Growing (According to the Cincinnati Chamber of Commerce):
*In 2011, Cincinnati had higher total job and private-sector job growth than the U.S. overall and Ohio overall. And more growth than Columbus and Cleveland combined
*Cincinnati has the most jobs of any region in Ohio for the first time since the data has been tracked in 1990.
*Cincinnati has more total employment growth than markets such as Minneapolis/St. Paul, Denver, Indianapolis and Charlotte, among others.
*In 2011, Cincinnati created almost half as many jobs as the entire state of Ohio.
*The Cincinnati region had 1.8 percent job growth in 2011 or 17,200 jobs.
* 3CDC has built 186 residential units in Over-the-Rhine to date. 94 percent are sold. Twelve condos are left.
* 3CDC has built 91,000 square feet of commercial space which is 85 percent leased
* 3CDC is set to break ground on 238 new residential units and 34,000 square feet of commercial space (this includes Mercer Commons, Paint Building, and seven projects in OTR Phase V Development – a total of 38 more buildings being renovated)
* 3CDC owns 200 buildings in the area from Central Parkway on the south to Liberty on the north, Elm on the west to Main on the East and 169 vacant parcels. 3CDC has rehabilitated 50 of these and are poised on another 50.
*Work on the Streetcar project is underway.

An Attractive Place To Visit:
* The World Choir Games are July 4-14, 2012 in Cincinnati. It is the first time the Games have been held in the United States.
* 20,000 participants are expected for the World Choir Games.
* Tens of thousands of visitors are expected for the World Choir Games from 70 different countries.
* The World Choir Games is Cincinnati USA’s largest international arts event ever with an economic impact of $73.5 million.
* Travel website Lonely Planet rated Cincinnati third on a list of places to visit in 2012.
* Current at the Banks is 100 percent leased with a waiting list.
* Retail at the Banks is 84 percent leased with active discussions on all remaining spaces.
* Open establishments at the Banks and Smale Park: The Moerlein Lager House, The Holy Grail, Johnny Rockets, Toby Keith’s I Love This Bar and Grill, Orange Leaf and the Police Welcome Center.
* Signed, but yet to open at the Banks; Tin Roof, Crave, The Wine Guy, Mahogany’s and Ruth Chris’.
*Restaurants/bars flourishing in revitalized OTR: Senate, A Tavola, Lavomatic, Bakersfield, Abigail Street, Taste of Belgium, Lackman, 1215, Venice on Vine
* The Banks has already brought more than 300 new jobs to the region.
*The inaugural Bunbury Music Festival will bring several well-known bands and musical acts to Sawyer Point and the surrounding area July 13-15
*The Horsehoe Casino is expected to open in Spring of 2013

Comey & Shepherd Realtors | Cincinnati Real Estate Blog | Cincinnati Real Estate | Comey Blog

Last week, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Sales Report which showed that contracted sales were 12.8% higher than the same month last year and higher than any time since sales were impacted by the Homebuyers’ Credit back in April of 2010. The index stood at 101.4 which represents a level that is “historically healthy” (see methodology below).

Here is a graph showing pending sales over the last twelve months:

METHODOLOGY (as per NAR)

The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales; it coincides with a level that is historically healthy.

Comey & Shepherd Realtors | Cincinnati Real Estate Blog | Cincinnati Real Estate | Comey Blog

Facts and Trends TM

Published April 2012*

Location: HAMILTON COUNTY

Price Range: $0 – No Limit

Property Types: Single Family, Condo – All Property Statuses

Bedrooms: 0 – No Limit

Full Baths: 0 – No Limit

Half Baths: 0 – No Limit

Avg Days On Market & SP/Orig LP % (Jan. 2011 – Mar. 2012)

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Jan. 2011 – Mar. 2012)

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Jan. 2011 – Mar. 2012)

Best Cities For Raising A Family

Which metro areas suit family life best? We looked at the 100 largest MSA’s(Metropolitan Statistical Areas) in the United States, ranking each in seven categories: median income, overall cost of living, housing affordability (what pct. of the market is affordable to a family at the median income), commuting delays, percentage of families owning homes, crime rate and education quality (mainly test scores).

No. 9 Cincinnati, Ohio

Median Income: 44 Cost of Living Index: 24 Housing Affordability: 13 Commuting: 36 Pct. Owning Homes: 68 (64%) Crime: 30 Education: 8

No real weak spots here – upper half of the country in every category but home ownership percentage.

Link To The Top 10

t
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Forecast for 2012

For the complete report see www.clearcapital.com which has insightful commentary and great charts, but we found the below to be especially interesting and succinct…

Recognize that all real estate is localized, neighborhood to neighborhood.  So trying to time the exact peak or exact low point is next to impossible until that peak or valley has passed.  Now is a terrific time to buy a home in Greater Cincinnati.  Interest rates are low and inventory is plentiful.  Don’t wait until the low point is gone, probably for good!

MSAs Expected to See Modest Growth
The 50 MSAs(Metropolitan Statistical Area’s) tracked by Clear Capital are forecasted to show mixed gains and losses, with 30 markets expected to see gains and 20 markets projected to post losses through the end of 2012. A full 52% of the 50 metros should see prices move less than 2% in either direction. No double digit declines are expected, and only Phoenix and Tampa are expected to see double digit gains. The forecasts for all 50 MSAs from March to December are shown in chart 6 below:

Chart 6: Forecast from March 2012 to December 2012
Metro 50 Forecast
Rank Metropolitan Statistical Area Forecast to end of 2012
1 Phoenix, AZ Mesa, AZ, Scottsdale, AZ +12.1%
2 Tampa, FL St. Petersburg, FL Clearwater, FL +11.4%
3 Orlando, FL +9.0%
4 Washington, DC Arlington, VA Alexandria, VA +8.4%
5 Las Vegas, NV Paradise, NV 6.6%
6 Miami, FL Ft. Lauderdale, FL Miami Beach, FL +6.0%
7 Houston, TX Baytown, TX Sugar Land, TX +4.3%
8 Providence, RI New Bedford, MA Fall River, MA +4.0%
9 Cleveland, OH Elyria, OH Mentor, OH +3.7%
10 NY, NY No. New Jersey, NJ Long Island, NY +3.4%
11 Louisville, KY +3.4%
12 Fresno, CA – Madera, CA +2.9%
13 San Diego, CA Carlsbad, CA San Marcos, CA +2.6%
14 Virginia Beach, VA Norfolk, VA Newport News, VA +2.3%
15 Birmingham, AL Hoover, AL +2.2%
16 Baltimore, MD Towson, MD +1.9%
17 Denver, CO Aurora, CO +1.8%
18 Portland, OR Vancouver, WA Beaverton, OR +1.8%
19 New Orleans, LA Metairie, LA Kenner, LA +1.6%
20 Dayton, OH +1.5%
21 Honolulu, HI +1.5%
22 Hartford, CT West Hartford, CT East Hartford, CT +1.3%
23 Richmond, VA +1.3%
24 Pittsburgh, PA +1.3%
25 Riverside, CA San Bernardino, CA Ontario, CA +1.2%
26 Minneapolis, MN St. Paul, MN Bloomington, WI +1.0%
27 Dallas, TX Fort Worth, TX Arlington, TX +0.8%
28 Sacramento, CA Arden, CA Roseville, CA +0.6%
29 Boston, MA Cambridge, MA Quincy, MA +0.5%
30 Los Angeles, CA Long Beach, CA Santa Ana, CA +0.5%

——31 Bakersfield, CA 0.0%——

32 St. Louis, MO -0.2%
33 Memphis, TN -0.2%
34 Rochester, NY -0.3%
35 San Francisco, CA Oakland, CA Fremont, CA -0.5%
36 Columbus, OH -0.5%
37 Nashville, TN Davidson, TN Murfreesboro, TN -0.5%
38 Tucson, AZ -0.5%
39 San Jose, CA Sunnyvale, CA Santa Clara, CA -0.6%
40 Oxnard, CA Thousand Oaks, CA Ventura, CA -1.4%
41 Raleigh, NC Cary, NC -1.7%
42 Milwaukee, WI Waukesha, WI West Allis, WI -2.3%
43 Cincinnati, OH Middletown, OH -2.4%
44 Jacksonville, FL -2.7%
45 Detroit, MI Warren, MI Livonia, MI -3.1%
46 Charlotte, NC Gastonia, NC Concord, NC -4.4%
47 Philadelphia, PA Camden, NJ Wilmington, DE -4.7%
48 Chicago, IL Naperville, IL Joliet, IL -5.1%
49 Seattle, WA Tacoma, WA Bellevue, WA -7.7%
50 Atlanta, GA Sandy Springs, GA, Marietta, GA -8.3%

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